Question by Mad Max: How does the balance of power shift if Iran becomes a nuclear power?
It seems to me that it is inevitable that Iran becomes a nuclear power. Bush was unable to stop North Korea, and didn’t stop Iran. Obama is unlikely to go to war in order to stop Iran, and even Israel is unlikely to at this point because the reactors now have nuclear fuel in them.
Once Iran becomes a nuclear power, what other countries will become nuclear powers, and how will this affect the long term strategic interests of the US? How will it change the balance of power in the world?
Best answer:
Answer by Oldwhiteguy2earth
The concern is not so much the balance of power as much as it is the sworn goal of Iran to wipe Israel off the face of the map. Since Muslims will be rewarded in Heaven, someone in the Iranian hierarchy could possibly light up the Middle East without regard for the consequences.
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3 Responses
If Iran got nukes, the entire Middle East would be a free for all.
Iran would gladly use a nuke regardless of the consequences.
And the Iranian Govt:
Hates Israel.
Claims that the other “Persian Gulf” countries are actually not independent but should be part of Iran since Iran is heir to the Persian Empire
Are major forces behind the Shia/Sunni slaughterfest over who is the rightful heir of Mohammed and who are the heretics.
Couple this with their sincere belief that if they die while doing “G-d’s work” they go to heaven and you have a very scary combination. These are the same people who cleared mine fields in the Iran Iraq war by sending their own children out to play in them. They were told that every boom was a child going to heaven.
Iran is already the powerhouse of the region and has been ever since Iraq was invaded in 2003. Once Iran becomes a nuclear power, the US will be very unlikely to invade.
Israel would lose her nuclear monopoly in the Middle East, and be drawn into a deeper alliance with the Kurds of northern Iraq.
But the real shift in power will be in the countries with large Shi’ite populations like Lebanon and Iraq. The Shi’ites will suddenly be siding with the winner in the region. You could expect the Shi’ites to become more assertive in their home countries and draw closer to Iran. The Iran-Syria-Hezbollah alliance would probably expand to become an Iran-Syria-Iraq-Lebanon alliance. That grouping would present military problems for Israel. Iranian and Iraqi oil and gas may start flowing to pipelines in Syria and Lebanon because the threat of Israeli attack would be greatly diminished. That would present economic problems for the US, who would rather see those pipelines (and the very lucrative transit fees associated with the pipelines) flow toward Turkey or Israel.
The balance of power in the world probably wouldn’t change much because Iran is already an ally of Russia, and has no enemies on its borders.
It will balance the power against Israel ‘s nuke weapons .