Question by DEREMBA: The Oil prices are based on fictious reasons and its part of the US startegy to slower the growth of INDIA?
And CHINA the two giants hungry for energy. A weka dollar is killing the EU zone no country in the world can bear long term trade with europe with a booming EURO. Please give some feed back on this and anlaysis?
Best answer:
Answer by 1Joe Doe
Jeff Rubin, the ever-bullish oil forecaster and chief economist at CIBC World Markets, can’t keep pace with crude’s meteoric rise.
Four months after predicting world oil prices will soar to 0 US a barrel by 2012, Rubin adjusted his outlook much higher Thursday — a day crude prices declined more than US a barrel as investors bolted from commodities — in a report that stands to drive North American bicycle sales through the roof.
Rubin now says oil prices will average 0 US in 2010 and an unfathomable 5 US in 2012, with Canadian gasoline prices topping .40 a litre this summer but skyrocketing all the way to .25 by 2012.
CIBC’s chief strategist has plenty of critics, but twice this decade he accurately read the tea leaves on oil’s march past and 0….
The basis for Rubin’s argument this time? In a report titled The Age of Scarcity, he said world crude oil production has not increased in two and a half years, but rather the supply increases reported by the likes of the Paris-based International Energy Agency have come from natural gas liquids (NGLs)…
The report predicts growth in the sale of new vehicles like the ,500 Tata and Chery models now being sold in emerging economies such as India, China and Russia means millions of new households will “suddenly have straws to start sucking at the world’s rapidly shrinking oil reserves.”…
Frank Atkins, an economist at the University of Calgary, who two years ago worked as a consultant to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, said Rubin’s outlook makes sense on several fronts but contends Rubin is also selling a low-probability scenario that stands to benefit CIBC World Markets….
“I myself believe the pressure on oil should be downward but when it happens is anyone’s guess. Likely when the U.S. economy stops slipping, the U.S. dollar finds its ground and people stop taking their money and buying oil futures as a safe haven.”
Next – No, this is not a drill. You’ve seen the TV footage of food riots in parts of the developing world…
Reality: Food prices are already rising here much faster than the returns you are likely to get from keeping your money in a bank or money-market fund. And there are very good reasons to believe prices on the shelves are about to start rising a lot faster.
“Load up the pantry,” says Manu Daftary, one of Wall Street’s top investors… “I think prices are going higher. People are too complacent. They think it isn’t going to happen here. But I don’t know how the food companies can absorb higher costs.”…
Stocking up on food may not replace your long-term investments, but it may make a sensible home for some of your shorter-term cash. Do the math. If you keep your standby cash in a money-market fund you’ll be lucky to get a 2.5% interest rate. Even the best one-year certificate of deposit you can find is only going to pay you about 4.1%, according to Bankrate.com. And those yields are before tax.
Meanwhile the most recent government data shows food inflation for the average American household is now running at 4.5% a year….
And if you are hoping they will pass, here’s the bad news: They may actually accelerate.
The reason? The prices of many underlying raw materials have risen much more quickly still. Wheat prices, for example, have roughly tripled in the past three years.
Sooner or later, the food companies are going to have to pass those costs on… The main reason for rising prices, of course, is the surge in demand from China and India. Hundreds of millions of people are joining the middle class each year, and that means they want to eat more and better food.
A secondary reason has been the growing demand for ethanol as a fuel additive. That’s soaking up some of the corn supply…. The emerging bull market in agricultural products is following in the footsteps of oil. A few years ago, many Americans hoped gas was a temporary spike. Now it’s the rosy memory of a bygone age….
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